Статья

Estimation of COVID-19 dynamics “on a back-of-envelope”: Does the simplest SIR model provide quantitative parameters and predictions?

E. Postnikov,
2021

Basing on existence of the mathematically sequential reduction of the three-compartmental (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered/Removed) model to the Verhulst (logistic) equation with the parameters determined by the basic characteristic of epidemic process, this model is tested in application to the recent data on COVID-19 outbreak reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It is shown that such a simple model adequately reproduces the epidemic dynamics not only qualitatively but for a number of countries quantitatively with a high degree of correlation that allows to use it for predictive estimations. In addition, some features of SIR model are discussed in the context, how its parameters and conditions reflect measures attempted for the disease growth prevention that is also clearly indicated by deviations from such model solutions. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • E. Postnikov
    Department of Theoretical Physics, Kursk State University, Radishcheva st., 33, Kursk, 305000, Russian Federation
Название журнала
  • Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
Том
  • 135
Страницы
  • -
Ключевые слова
  • Disease control; Dynamic models; Basic characteristics; Degree of correlations; Disease prevention and controls; Epidemic dynamics; Epidemic process; Predictive estimation; Quantitative parameters; Sequential reductions; Parameter estimation
Издатель
  • Elsevier Ltd
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus