Статья

Probability of infectious disease in humans during epidemic

A. Karmishin, I. Borisevich, V. Skvortsova, A. Goryaev, S. Yudin,
2021

Popular SIR models and their modifications used to generate predictions about epidemics and, specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic, are inadequate. The aim of this study was to find the laws describing the probability of infection in a biological object. Using theoretical methods of research based on the probability theory, we constructed the laws describing the probability of infection in a human depending on the infective dose and considering the temporal characteristics of a given infection. The so-called generalized time-factor law, which factors in the time of onset and the duration of an infectious disease, was found to be the most general. Among its special cases are the law describing the probability of infection developing by some point in time t, depending on the infective dose, and the law that does not factor in the time of onset. The study produced a full list of quantitative characteristics of pathogen virulence. The laws described in the study help to solve practical tasks and should lie at the core of mathematical epidemiological modeling.

Цитирование

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Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-03-18

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • A. Karmishin
    Centre for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks of FMBA, Moscow, Russia
  • I. Borisevich
    Federal Medical and Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia
  • V. Skvortsova
    Federal Medical and Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia
  • A. Goryaev
    Centre for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks of FMBA, Moscow, Russia
  • S. Yudin
    Centre for Strategic Planning and Management of Biomedical Health Risks of FMBA, Moscow, Russia
Название журнала
  • Bulletin officiel
Выпуск
  • (1)2021
Издатель
  • Federal Medical Biological Agency
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • dimensions