Статья

Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza

M. Litvinova, Q. Liu, E. Kulikov, M. Ajelli,
2021

School-closure policies are considered one of the most promising nonpharmaceutical interventions for mitigating seasonal and pandemic influenza. However, their effectiveness is still debated, primarily due to the lack of empirical evidence about the behavior of the population during the implementation of the policy. Over the course of the 2015 to 2016 influenza season in Russia, we performed a diary-based contact survey to estimate the patterns of social interactions before and during the implementation of reactive school-closure strategies. We develop an innovative hybrid survey-modeling framework to estimate the time-varying network of human social interactions. By integrating this network with an infection transmission model, we reduce the uncertainty surrounding the impact of school-closure policies in mitigating the spread of influenza. When the school-closure policy is in place, we measure a significant reduction in the number of contacts made by students (14.2 vs. 6.5 contacts per day) and workers (11.2 vs. 8.7 contacts per day). This reduction is not offset by the measured increase in the number of contacts between students and nonhousehold relatives. Model simulations suggest that gradual reactive school-closure policies based on monitoring student absenteeism rates are capableofmitigatinginfluenzaspread.Weestimatethatwithoutthe implemented reactive strategies the attack rate of the 2015 to 2016 influenza season would have been 33% larger. Our study sheds light onthesocialmixingpatternsofthepopulationduringtheimplemen-tation of reactive school closures and provides key instruments for future cost-effectiveness analyses of school-closure policies. © 2019 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • M. Litvinova
    Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA 02115, United States
  • Q. Liu
    ISI Foundation, Turin, 10126, Italy
  • E. Kulikov
    CompleX Lab, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611731, China
  • M. Ajelli
    Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611731, China
Название журнала
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Том
  • 116
Выпуск
  • 27
Страницы
  • 13174-13181
Ключевые слова
  • adolescent; adult; aged; Article; child; controlled study; disease transmission; health survey; human; infant; influenza; major clinical study; policy; population research; priority journal; relative; risk reduction; Russian Federation; school attendance; social interaction; social network; student; very elderly; worker
Издатель
  • National Academy of Sciences
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus