Статья

Time, space and social interactions: exit mechanisms for the Covid-19 epidemics

A. Scala, A. Flori, A. Spelta, E. Brugnoli, M. Cinelli, W. Quattrociocchi, F. Pammolli,
2021

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that, while an early lockdown shifts the contagion in time, beyond a critical value of lockdown strength the epidemic tends to restart after lifting the restrictions. We characterize the relative importance of different lockdown lifting schemes by accounting for two fundamental sources of heterogeneity, i.e. geography and demography. First, we consider Italian Regions as separate administrative entities, in which social interactions between age classes occur. We show that, due to the sparsity of the inter-Regional mobility matrix, once started, the epidemic spreading tends to develop independently across areas, justifying the adoption of mobility restrictions targeted to individual Regions or clusters of Regions. Second, we show that social contacts between members of different age classes play a fundamental role and that interventions which target local behaviours and take into account the age structure of the population can provide a significant contribution to mitigate the epidemic spreading. Our model aims to provide a general framework, and it highlights the relevance of some key parameters on non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the contagion. © 2020, The Author(s).

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • A. Scala
    Applico Lab, CNR-ISC, Rome, Italy
  • A. Flori
    Big Data in Health Society, Rome, Italy
  • A. Spelta
    Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, Leninsky Prospekt, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • E. Brugnoli
    Impact, Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico Di Milano, Milan, Italy
  • M. Cinelli
    Univ. Di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
  • W. Quattrociocchi
    Center for Analysis Decisions and Society, Human Technopole and Politecnico Di Milano, Milan, Italy
  • F. Pammolli
    Univ. Di Venezia ’Ca Foscari, Venezia, Italy
Название журнала
  • Scientific Reports
Том
  • 10
Выпуск
  • 1
Страницы
  • -
Ключевые слова
  • adolescent; adult; age; aged; Betacoronavirus; child; Coronavirus infection; human; human relation; infant; Italy; middle aged; newborn; pandemic; preschool child; procedures; quarantine; social behavior; statistical model; time factor; travel; virology; virus pneumonia; young adult; Adolescent; Adult; Age Factors; Aged; Betacoronavirus; Child; Child, Preschool; Coronavirus Infections; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Interpersonal Relations; Italy; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral; Quarantine; Social Behavior; Time Factors; Travel; Young Adult
Издатель
  • Nature Research
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus