Статья

Reproducing country-wide COVID-19 dynamics can require the usage of a set of SIR systems

E. Postnikov,
2021

This work shows that simple compartmental epidemiological models may not reproduce actually reported country-wide statistics since the latter reflects the cumulative amount of infected persons, which in fact is a sum of outbreaks within different patched. It the same time, the multilogistic decomposition of such epidemiological curves reveals components, which are quite close to the solutions of the SIR model in logistic approximations characterised by different sets of parameters including time shifts. This line of reasoning is confirmed by processing data for Spain and Russia in details and, additionally, is illustrated for several other countries. Copyright 2021 Postnikov

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • E. Postnikov
    Kursk State University, Kursk, Russian Federation
Название журнала
  • PeerJ
Том
  • 9
Страницы
  • -
Ключевые слова
  • Article; coronavirus disease 2019; data processing; disease surveillance; logistic regression analysis; statistical iterative reconstruction; statistical model
Издатель
  • PeerJ Inc.
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus