Статья

Estimation of Covid-19 Infection Growth Rate Based on the Imbedding Method

I. Derevich, A. Panova,
2021

An analysis is presented of universal stages in the development of the COVID-19 virus infection epidemic. It is assumed that during a pandemic the growth rate in the number of infections in a country occurs similarly to the process of virion replication in an infected organism. The exponent of the growth rate of the number of infection cases reflects not only biomedical parameters of a virus infection but also distinctive features of the social behavior of the population of a country. The dynamics of the change in the growth rate exponents is simulated by a system of relaxation-type ordinary differential equations. In applied mathematics, based on the imbedding method, limit values are forecast for exponents of the growth rate of the number of cases using the currently available experimental data. These values “forecast ahead” are subsequently approached by the actual exponents of growth in the number of infectees. The search for unknown parameters is carried out by minimizing a specially constructed quadratic functional accounting for all confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection. The functional minimum is found via iterations by solving a system of ordinary differential equations.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-01-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • I. Derevich
    Bauman Moscow State Technical University
  • A. Panova
    Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Название журнала
  • Journal of Engineering Physics and Thermophysics
Том
  • 94
Выпуск
  • 1
Страницы
  • 18-29
Номер гранта
  • undefined
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus