Статья

Analytical features of the SIR model and their applications to COVID-19

N. Kudryashov, M. Chmykhov, M. Vigdorowitsch,
2021

A classic two-parameter epidemiological SIR-model of the coronavirus propagation is considered. The first integrals of the system of non-linear equations are obtained. The Painlevé test shows that the system of equations is not integrable in the general case. However, the general solution is obtained in quadrature as an inverse time-function. Using the first integrals of the system of equations, analytical dependencies for the number of infected patients I(t) and that of recovered patients R(t) on the number of susceptible to infection S(t) are obtained. A particular attention is paid to interrelation of I(t) and R(t) both depending on α/β, where α is the contact rate in the community and β is the intensity of recovery/decease of patients. It is demonstrated that the data on particular morbidity waves in Hubei (China), Italy, Austria, South Korea, Moscow (Russia) as well some Australian territories are satisfactorily described by the expressions obtained for I(R). The variability of parameter N having been traditionally considered as a static population size is discussed.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-02-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • N. Kudryashov
    National Research Nuclear University MEPhI
  • M. Chmykhov
    National Research Nuclear University MEPhI
  • M. Vigdorowitsch
    Angara GmbH
Название журнала
  • Applied Mathematical Modelling
Том
  • 90
Страницы
  • 466-473
Финансирующая организация
  • Russian Foundation for Basic Research
Номер гранта
  • 18-29-10025
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus