Статья

Real-time estimation of R<inf>0</inf> for COVID-19 spread

T. Simos, C. Tsitouras, V. Kovalnogov, R. Fedorov, D. Generalov,
2021

We propose a real-time approximation of R in an SIR-type model that applies to the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. A very useful direct formula expressing R is found. Then, various type of models are considered, namely, finite differences, cubic splines, Piecewise Cubic Hermite interpolation and linear least squares approximation. Preserving the monotonicity of the formula under consideration proves to be of crucial importance. This latter property is preferred over accuracy, since it maintains positive R . Only the Linear Least Squares technique guarantees this, and is finally proposed here. Tests on real COVID-19 data confirm the usefulness of our approach. 0 0 0

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Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-03-02

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • T. Simos
    Ulyanovsk State Technical University, South Ural State University, Democritus University of Thrace
  • C. Tsitouras
    National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
  • V. Kovalnogov
    Ulyanovsk State Technical University
  • R. Fedorov
    Ulyanovsk State Technical University
  • D. Generalov
    Ulyanovsk State Technical University
Название журнала
  • Mathematics
Том
  • 9
Выпуск
  • 6
Финансирующая организация
  • Government Council on Grants, Russian Federation
Номер гранта
  • 2020-220-08-6251
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus