Статья

Prediction of influenza peaks in Russian cities: Comparing the accuracy of two seir models

V. Leonenko, S. Ivanov,
2021

This paper is dedicated to the application of two types of SEIR models to the influenza outbreak peak prediction in Russian cities. The first one is a continuous SEIR model described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The second one is a discrete model formulated as a set of difference equations, which was used in the Baroyan-Rvachev modeling framework for the influenza outbreak prediction in the Soviet Union. The outbreak peak day and height predictions were performed by calibrating both models to varied-size samples of long-term data on ARI incidence in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Novosibirsk. The accuracy of the modeling predictions on incomplete data was compared with a number of other peak forecasting methods tested on the same dataset. The drawbacks of the described prediction approach and possible ways to overcome them are discussed.

Цитирование

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Источник

Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • V. Leonenko
    ITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr 197101, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
  • S. Ivanov
    ITMO University, 49 Kronverksky Pr 197101, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Название журнала
  • Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Том
  • 15
Выпуск
  • 1
Страницы
  • 209-232
Ключевые слова
  • Difference equations; Epidemiology; Mathematical models; Ordinary differential equations; Discrete modeling; Forecasting methods; Incomplete data; Influenza; Model framework; Model prediction; Soviet Union; System of ordinary differential equations; Forecasting; algorithm; calibration; city; communicable disease control; epidemic; human; incidence; infectious disease medicine; influenza; procedures; reproducibility; retrospective study; Russian Federation; theoretical model; Algorithms; Calibration; Cities; Communicable Disease Control; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Incidence; Infectious Disease Medicine; Influenza, Human; Models, Theoretical; Reproducibility of Results; Retrospective Studies; Russia
Издатель
  • American Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus