Статья

Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics

D. Tomchin, A. Fradkov,
2020

An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.

Цитирование

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Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2020-01-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • D. Tomchin
    Institute for Problems of Mechanical Engineering, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoy Ave 61, Vasilievsky Ostrov, St. Petersburg, 199178, Russia
  • A. Fradkov
    Institute for Problems of Mechanical Engineering, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoy Ave 61, Vasilievsky Ostrov, St. Petersburg, 199178, Russia
Название журнала
  • IFAC-PapersOnLine
Том
  • 53
Выпуск
  • 5
Страницы
  • 833-838
Издатель
  • Elsevier
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • dimensions