Despite the current uncertainty and transformation of the energy sector, the growth in global energy consumption is driving interest in new sources of hydrocarbons. Due to its significant oil and gas resources, the Russian Arctic can make a significant contribution to meeting global energy demand. Oil and gas production in the Arctic is extremely challenging both technologically and economically. The prospects for a number of oil and gas projects in the Arctic remain unclear today, and their investigation is a complicated problem that can hardly be formalized, since a range of complex factors affect it. The aim of this study is to assess the prospects for the development of the Russian Arctic oil and gas shelf by identifying the key factors affecting oil and gas projects development, creating and analyzing a list of criteria that reflect the behavior of the key identified factors, and developing scenario forecasts based on key criteria. We develop a system of factors and analyze them; create a list of criteria that determine the prospects for the development of the Arctic shelf; develop their scenario forecasts focused on proactive measures that can be implemented by the state and companies, as well as on post-pandemic oil prices forecasts (change from 50 to 70 dollars per barrel) and level of geological exploration in the Arctic by 2035. We base our study on the interrelation of identified factors and criteria, their extensive analysis and adjustment of existing forecasts in this area, as well as on expert opinions and current situation in the energy sector. © 2020 The Authors