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Статья
COVID‑19 mathematical forecasting in the Russian Federation [Возможности математического прогнозирования коронавирусной инфекции в Российской Федерации]
2021
A new coronavirus infection (CVI) is a challenge to the medical system of the Russian Federation and requires precise flow forecasting to take the necessary measures on time. The article provides an overview of modern mathematical tools for predicting the course of CVI in the world. The created CVI forecasting project office allowed to determine the most effective analysis tools in the Russian Federation — the ARIMA, SIRD and Holt–Winters exponential smoothing models. Implementation of these models allows for prediction of short-term morbidity, mortality and survival of patients with an accuracy of 99 % both in the Russian Federation in general and in the regions. In addition, the distribution of CVI was characterized. Particularly, Moscow and Moscow region have the maximum spread of infection, and other regions are lagging behind in the dynamics of the incidence by 1–3 weeks. The obtained models allow us to predict the course of the disease in the regions successfully and take the necessary measures in a timely manner. © 2020 All-Russian Public Organization Antihypertensive League. All rights reserved.
Цитирование
Похожие публикации
Версии
- 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27
Метаданные
Название журнала
- Arterial Hypertension (Russian Federation)
Том
- 26
Выпуск
- 3
Страницы
- 288-294
Ключевые слова
- accuracy; Article; coronavirus disease 2019; forecasting; human; incidence; morbidity; mortality; Russian Federation; survival
Издатель
- All-Russian Public Organization Antihypertensive League
Тип документа
- journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
- CC
Правовой статус документа
- Свободная лицензия
Источник
- scopus
