Статья

Patterns of mortality during pandemic: An example of Spanish flu pandemic of 1918

N. Gavrilova, L. Gavrilov,
2020

Now the attention of the whole world is focused on the developing pandemic of the coronavirus infection COVID-19. This article discusses mortality patterns of the deadliest epidemic in the last 120 years - the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Statistical sources from Italy and the USA, published shortly after the pandemic, were analyzed. The analysis was carried out for mortality from all causes, since in this case inaccuracies associated with establishing the causes of death are minimized. Despite the fact that the first cases of the Spanish flu appeared in the United States as early as March 1918, this first wave of epidemic practically did not affect the total mortality rate. The main peak of mortality in 1918 occurred in October 1918 both in the USA and Italy, with a gradual decrease in mortality over several months. Analysis of age-specific mortality demonstrates a significant increase in mortality at middle ages (20-50 years) in 1918 compared with 1917. Analysis of mortality trends using the method of latent variables shows a significant increase in the background mortality factor in 1918, which turned out to be higher for Italy than the mortality losses during the Second World War. The Spanish flu pandemic differs from the current coronavirus pandemic, because of significant increase in mortality of middle-aged people, while the COVID-19 pandemic causes a more marked increase in mortality among the elderly. With this, the COVID-19 pandemic is more like the recent flu epidemics than the earlier Spanish flu pandemic.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2020-04-30

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • N. Gavrilova
    University of Chicago, 60637, USA; Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 127254, Russia; Institute of Socio-Political Research at the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, 119333, Russia, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America
  • L. Gavrilov
    University of Chicago, 60637, USA; Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 127254, Russia; Institute of Socio-Political Research at the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, 119333, Russia, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America
Название журнала
  • Population and Economics
Том
  • 4
Выпуск
  • 2
Страницы
  • 56-64
Издатель
  • Pensoft Publishers
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • dimensions