Статья

Predictors of oil shocks. Econophysical approach in environmental science

A. Bielinskyi, I. Khvostina, A. Mamanazarov, A. Matviychuk, S. Semerikov, O. Serdyuk, V. Solovieva, V. Soloviev,
2021

The instability of the price dynamics of the energy market from a theoretical point of view indicates the inadequacy of the dominant paradigm of the quantitative description of pricing processes, and from a practical point of view, it leads to abnormal shocks and crashes. A striking example is the COVID-stimulated spring drop of spot prices for crude oil by 305% to $36.73 a barrel. The theory of complex systems with the latest complex networking achievements using pragmatically verified econophysical approaches and models can become the basis of modern environmental science. In this case, it is possible to introduce certain measures of complexity, the change in the dynamics of which makes it possible to identify and prevent characteristic types of critical phenomena. In this paper, the possibility of using some econophysical approaches for quantitative assessment of complexity measures: (1) informational (Lempel-Ziv measure, various types of entropies (Shannon, Approximate, Permutation, Recurrence), (2) fractal and multifractal (Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), (3) recurrent (Recurrence Plot and Recurrence Quantification Analysis), (4) Lévy’s stable distribution properties, (5) network (Visual Graph and Recurrence based) and (6) quantum (Heisenberg uncertainty principle) is investigated. Each of them detects patterns that are general for crisis states. We conclude that these measures make it possible to establish that the socially responsive exhibits characteristic patterns of complexity and the proposed measures of complexity allow us to build indicators-precursors of critical and crisis phenomena. Proposed quantitative measures of complexity classified and adapted for the crude oil market. Their behavior in the face of known market shocks and crashes has been analyzed. It has been shown that most of these measures behave characteristically in the periods preceding the critical event. Therefore, it is possible to build indicators-precursors of crisis phenomena in the crude oil market.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-01-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • A. Bielinskyi
    Kryvyi Rih State Pedagogical University, 54 Gagarina Ave, Kryvyi Rih 50086, Ukraine
  • I. Khvostina
    Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of oil and gas, 15 Karpatska St., 76019, Ukraine
  • A. Mamanazarov
    Tashkent Branch of State University named after M. V., Lomonosov
  • A. Matviychuk
    Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman, 54/1 Prospect Peremogy, 03057, Ukraine
  • S. Semerikov
    Kryvyi Rih State Pedagogical University, 54 Gagarina Ave, Kryvyi Rih 50086, Ukraine
  • O. Serdyuk
    Bohdan Khmelnitsky National University of Cherkasy, 81 Shevchenko Boulevard, 18000, Ukraine
  • V. Solovieva
    State University of Economics and Technology, 16 Medychna St., Kryvyi Rih, 50000, Ukraine
  • V. Soloviev
    Kryvyi Rih State Pedagogical University, 54 Gagarina Ave, Kryvyi Rih 50086, Ukraine
Название журнала
  • IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science
Том
  • 628
Выпуск
  • 1
Страницы
  • 012019
Издатель
  • IOP Publishing
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • dimensions