1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

W. Koczkodaj; M. Mansournia; W. Pedrycz; A. Wolny-Dominiak; P. Zabrodskii; D. Strzaška; T. Armstrong; A. Zolfaghari; M. Debski; J. Mazurek

Статья

1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

W. Koczkodaj, M. Mansournia, W. Pedrycz, A. Wolny-Dominiak, P. Zabrodskii, D. Strzaška, T. Armstrong, A. Zolfaghari, M. Debski, J. Mazurek,

2020

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100023

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report.

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1. Version of Record от 2020-03-23

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Об авторах

W. Koczkodaj
Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6, Canada
M. Mansournia
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
W. Pedrycz
Department of Electrical Computer Engineering, Alberta University, Ed- monton, Alberta, Canada
A. Wolny-Dominiak
University of Economics in Katowice, 1 Maja 47, 40-287 Katowice, Poland
P. Zabrodskii
Saratov Medical University, Reaviz, Saratov, Russian Federation
D. Strzaška
Rzeszów University of Technology, Powsta«ców Warszawy 12, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
T. Armstrong
Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6, Canada
A. Zolfaghari
Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6, Canada
M. Debski
Department of Sociology, University of Gda«sk, Gda«sk, Poland
J. Mazurek
Silesian University in Opava, Opava, Czech Republic.

Название журнала

Global Epidemiology

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100023

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Elsevier

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journal article

Тип лицензии Creative Commons

CC BY

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Свободная лицензия

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1,000,000 cases of COVID-19 outside of China: The date predicted by a simple heuristic

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