Статья

Predicting the dynamics of the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic based on the case-based reasoning approach

V. Zakharov, Y. Balykina,
2020

The case-based rate reasoning (CBRR) method is presented for predicting future values of the coronavirus epidemic's main parameters in Russia, which makes it possible to build short-term forecasts based on analogues of the percentage growth dynamics in other countries. A new heuristic method for estimating the duration of the transition process of the percentage increase between specified levels is described, taking into account information about the dynamics of epidemiological processes in countries of the spreading chain. The CBRR software module has been developed in the MATLAB environment, which implements the proposed approach and intelligent proprietary algorithms for constructing trajectories of predicted epidemic indicators.

Цитирование

Похожие публикации

Источник

Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2020-01-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • V. Zakharov
    Saint Petersburg State University
  • Y. Balykina
    Saint Petersburg State University
Название журнала
  • Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta, Prikladnaya Matematika, Informatika, Protsessy Upravleniya
Том
  • 16
Выпуск
  • 3
Страницы
  • 249-259
Номер гранта
  • undefined
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus