Статья

Modelling of COVID-19 morbidity in russia

G. Kopanitsa, O. Metsker, A. Yakovlev, A. Fedorenko, N. Zvartau,
2020

The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to a crucial change in ordinary healthcare approaches. In comparison with emergencies re-allocation of resources for a long period of time is required and the peak utilization of the resources is also hard to predict. Furthermore, the epidemic models do not provide reliable information of the development of the pandemic's development, so it creates a high load on the healthcare systems with unforeseen duration. To predict morbidity of the novel COVID-19, we used records covering the time period from 01-03-2020 to 25-05-2020 and include sophisticated information of the morbidity in Russia. Total of 45238 patients were analyzed. The predictive model was developed as a combination of Holt and Holt-Winter models with Gradient boosting Regression. As we can see from the table 2, the models demonstrated a very good performance on the test data set. The forecast is quite reliable, however, due to the many uncertainties, only a real-world data can prove the correctness of the forecast.

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Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2020-09-04

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • G. Kopanitsa
    Saint Petersburg National Research University of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics University ITMO
  • O. Metsker
    Almazov National Medical Research Centre
  • A. Yakovlev
    Almazov National Medical Research Centre
  • A. Fedorenko
    Almazov National Medical Research Centre
  • N. Zvartau
    Almazov National Medical Research Centre
Название журнала
  • Studies in Health Technology and Informatics
Том
  • 273
Страницы
  • 262-265
Финансирующая организация
  • Russian Science Foundation
Номер гранта
  • 17-15-01177
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus