Статья

Possible medium-term scenarios of dynamics of Russia’s energy resource exports after the economic crisis of 2020

V. Mincicova,
2021

Purpose: the purpose of the research is to define the minimum and maximum volume of decline in Russia’s energy resource exports during and after the pandemic crisis, to forecast and analyze the physical and value amounts of exports of crude oil, petroleum products, pipeline natural gas, LNG and coal from Russia during the period of 2020–2024. Design/methodology/approach: based on Russian Federal statistics, international statistical bases of organizations specialized in energy, business analytics and its forecasts the author predicts the physical volumes and prices of different energy goods exported form Russia for the medium-term period of 2020–2024. Findings: The proposed scenarios reflect 3 possible ways of recovery from the pandemic crisis: negative, baseline and optimistic. The L-shaped, U-shaped and V-shaped graphs respectively represent the phases of recovery after the crisis caused by industrial break and lockdown in a certain sphere of fuel and energy economics. The decline in total amount of energy goods exports from Russia is estimated as 8–15% in negative scenario, 6–15% in baseline scenario and 4–10% in optimistic scenario in 2020. All the figures appearing in the article are justified by certain processes, governmental actions or counter actions of the principal external partners. Originality/value: the results of the author’s research presented in this article are new, consider the latest information and statistics about the global and regional economy during the pandemic crisis and can be used for planning the external economic interaction with Russia, as well as modifying European energy policy due to newly adopted Green Deal, modifying external energy policies of the Middle Eastern countries, China, US, JKT and other Asian countries and EAEU countries due to the actions of their principal competitor and partner - Russia. The results are also of use not only to governments, but also to business intermediaries and industrial producers as the article concerns the area of international energy supply.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-01-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • V. Mincicova
    Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Название журнала
  • Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems
Том
  • 200
Страницы
  • 840-848
Номер гранта
  • undefined
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus