Evolutionary trends have been examined in 146 HIV-1 forms (2662 copies, 2311 isolates) polymorphic for the TATA box using the "DNA sequence→affinity for TBP" regression (TBP is the TATA binding protein). As a result, a statistically significant excess of low-affinity TATA box HIV-1 variants corresponding to a low level of both basal and TAT-dependent expression and, consequently, slow replication of HIV-1 have been detected. A detailed analysis revealed that the excess of slowly replicating HIV-1 is associated with the subtype E-associated TATA box core sequence "CATAAAA". Principal Component Analysis performed on 2662 HIV-1 TATA box copies in 70 countries revealed the presence of two principal components, PC1 (75.7% of the variance) and PC2 (23.3% of the variance). They indicate that each of these countries is specifically associated with one of the following trends in HIV-1 evolution: neutral drift around the normal TATA box; neutral drift around the slowly replicating TATA box core sequence (phylogenetic inertia); an adaptive increase in the frequency of the slowly replicating form. © 2010 Imperial College Press.