Статья

Counting pandemic deaths: Comparing reported numbers of deaths from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with estimated excess mortality

J. Gran, O. Kacelnik, A. Grjibovski, P. Aavitsland, B. Iversen,
2021

Background: During the wave 1 of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, Norway appeared to be suffering from high mortality rates. However, by the end of the pandemic, it was widely reported that the number of deaths were much lower than previous years. Objectives: The mortality burden from influenza is often assessed by two different approaches: counting influenza-certified deaths and estimating the mortality burden using models. The purpose of this study is to compare the number of reported deaths with results from two different models for estimating excess mortality during the pandemic in Norway. Additionally, mortality estimates for the pandemic season are compared with non-pandemic influenza seasons. Methods: Numbers on reported influenza A(N1h1)pdm09 deaths are gived by the Cause of Death Registry at Statistics Norway and an ad hoc registry at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Overall and Pnemumonia and Influenza certified mortality is modeled using Poission regression, adjusting for levels of reported influenza-like illness and seasonal and year-to-year variation. Results and conclusions: Modelling results suggest that the excess mortality in older age groups is considerably lower during the pandemic than non-pandemic seasons, but there are indications of an excess beyond what was reported during the pandemic. This highlights the benefits of both methods and the importance of explaining where these numbers come from. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • J. Gran
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  • O. Kacelnik
    Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
  • A. Grjibovski
    ECDC, Stockholm, Sweden
  • P. Aavitsland
    Department of International Public Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  • B. Iversen
    International School of Public Health, Northern State Medical University, Arkhangelsk, Russian Federation
Название журнала
  • Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses
Том
  • 7
Выпуск
  • 6
Страницы
  • 1370-1379
Ключевые слова
  • 2009 H1N1 influenza; adolescent; adult; aged; article; cause of death; child; comparative study; controlled study; disease surveillance; female; groups by age; human; infant; influenza A (H1N1); Influenza virus A; major clinical study; male; mortality; newborn; Norway; pandemic; pandemic influenza; preschool child; priority journal; questionnaire; register; school child; seasonal influenza; seasonal variation; A(H1N1)pdm09; excess mortality; influenza; modelling; pandemic; reporting; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Child; Child, Preschool; Female; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Influenza, Human; Male; Middle Aged; Mortality; Norway; Pandemics; Survival Analysis; Young Adult
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus