Статья

Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Efficacy: A Universal Epidemic Model

L. Nizolenko, A. Bachinsky, S. Bazhan,
2021

By means of a designed epidemic model, we evaluated the influence of seasonal vaccination coverage as well as a potential universal vaccine with differing efficacy on the aftermath of seasonal and pandemic influenza. The results of the modeling enabled us to conclude that, to control a seasonal influenza epidemic with a reproduction coefficient R 0 ≤ 1.5, a 35% vaccination coverage with the current seasonal influenza vaccine formulation is sufficient, provided that other epidemiology measures are regularly implemented. Increasing R 0 level of pandemic strains will obviously require stronger intervention. In addition, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to confer protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza strains. Therefore, the necessity of a universal influenza vaccine is clear. The model predicts that a potential universal vaccine will be able to provide sufficient reliable (90%) protection against pandemic influenza only if its efficacy is comparable with the effectiveness of modern vaccines against seasonal influenza strains (70%-80%); given that at least 40% of the population has been vaccinated in advance, ill individuals have been isolated (observed), and a quarantine has been introduced. If other antiepidemic measures are absent, a vaccination coverage of at least 80% is required. © 2016 Lily Ph. Nizolenko et al.

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Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • L. Nizolenko
    Vector State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk Region, 630559, Russian Federation
  • A. Bachinsky
  • S. Bazhan
Название журнала
  • BioMed Research International
Том
  • 2016
Страницы
  • -
Ключевые слова
  • influenza vaccine; vaccine; Article; drug efficacy; epidemic; evaluation study; human; immunization; influenza vaccination; model; pandemic influenza; parameters; seasonal influenza
Издатель
  • Hindawi Limited
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus