Статья

Revealing the True Incidence of Pandemic A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza in Finland during the First Two Seasons — An Analysis Based on a Dynamic Transmission Model

M. Shubin, A. Lebedev, O. Lyytikäinen, K. Auranen,
2021

The threat of the new pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 imposed a heavy burden on the public health system in Finland in 2009-2010. An extensive vaccination campaign was set up in the middle of the first pandemic season. However, the true number of infected individuals remains uncertain as the surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We constructed a transmission model to simulate the spread of influenza in the Finnish population. We used the model to analyse the two first years (2009-2011) of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Finland. Using data from the national surveillance of influenza and data on close person-to-person (social) contacts in the population, we estimated that 6% (90% credible interval 5.1 – 6.7%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the first pandemic season (2009/2010) and an additional 3% (2.5 – 3.5%) in the second season (2010/2011). Vaccination had a substantial impact in mitigating the second season. The dynamic approach allowed us to discover how the proportion of detected cases changed over the course of the epidemic. The role of time-varying reproduction number, capturing the effects of weather and changes in behaviour, was important in shaping the epidemic. © 2016 Shubin et al.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • M. Shubin
    University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  • A. Lebedev
    National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland
  • O. Lyytikäinen
    Rybinsk State Aviation Technical University, Rybinsk, Russian Federation
  • K. Auranen
    University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Название журнала
  • PLoS Computational Biology
Том
  • 12
Выпуск
  • 3
Страницы
  • -
Ключевые слова
  • influenza vaccine; 2009 H1N1 influenza; adolescent; adult; aged; Article; Bayes theorem; behavior change; child; contact examination; disease severity; disease surveillance; disease transmission; epidemic; Finland; human; incidence; infant; infection sensitivity; influenza vaccination; major clinical study; mathematical analysis; pandemic influenza; probability; simulation; weather; age distribution; computer simulation; female; Finland; incidence; Influenza, Human; male; mass immunization; middle aged; newborn; Pandemics; preschool child; procedures; reproducibility; risk assessment; season; sensitivity and specificity; sex ratio; statistical analysis; statistical model; statistics and numerical data; very elderly; young adult; Adolescent; Adult; Age Distribution; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Child; Child, Preschool; Computer Simulation; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Female; Finland; Humans; Incidence; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Influenza Vaccines; Influenza, Human; Male; Mass Vaccination; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Pandemics; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Assessment; Seasons; Sensitivity and Specificity; Sex Distribution; Young Adult
Издатель
  • Public Library of Science
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus