Статья

Logistic equation and COVID-19

E. Pelinovsky, A. Kurkin, O. Kurkina, M. Kokoulina, A. Epifanova,
2021

The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea. The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the expected number of infected people, as well as the exponent indexes in the generalized logistic equation. It is shown that the dependence of the number of the infected people on time is well described on average by the logistic curve (within the framework of a simple or generalized logistic equation) with a determination coefficient exceeding 0.8. At the same time, the dependence of the number of the infected people per day on time has a very uneven character and can be described very roughly by the logistic curve. To describe it, it is necessary to take into account the dependence of the model coefficients on time or on the total number of cases. Variations, for example, of the growth rate can reach 60%. The variability spectra of the coefficients have characteristic peaks at periods of several days, which corresponds to the observed serial intervals. The use of the stochastic logistic equation is proposed to estimate the number of probable peaks in the coronavirus incidence. © 2020

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • E. Pelinovsky
    Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev, Minin st., 24, Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation
  • A. Kurkin
    National Research University – Higher School of Economics, Myasnitskaya st., 20, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
  • O. Kurkina
    Institute of Applied Physics, Nizhny Novgorod, Ul'yanov st., 46, Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation
  • M. Kokoulina
  • A. Epifanova
Название журнала
  • Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
Том
  • 140
Страницы
  • -
Ключевые слова
  • Mathematical techniques; Characteristic peaks; Coronaviruses; Determination coefficients; Logistic curves; Logistic equations; Model coefficient; South Korea; Switzerland; Stochastic systems
Издатель
  • Elsevier Ltd
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus