Статья

A country pandemic risk exposure measurement model

S. Grima, M. Kizilkaya, R. Rupeika-Apoga, I. Romānova, R. Gonzi, M. Jakovljevic,
2021

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to develop a Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement (PREM) model to determine the factors that affect a country’s prospective vulnerability to a pandemic risk exposure also considering the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: To develop the model, drew up an inventory of possible factor variables that might expose a country’s vulnerability to a pandemic such as COVID-19. This model was based on the analysis of existing literature and consultations with some experts and associa-tions. To support the inventory of selected possible factor variables, we have conducted a survey with participants sampled from people working in a risk management environment carrying out a risk management function. The data were subjected to statistical analysis, specifically exploratory factor analysis and Cronbach Alpha to determine and group these factor variables and determine their reliability, respectively. This enabled the development of the PREM model. To eliminate possible bias, hierarchical regression analysis was carried out to examine the effect of the “Level of Experienced Hazard of the Participant (LEH)” considering also the “Level of Expertise and Knowledge about Risk and Risk Management (LEK)”. Results: Exploratory factor analysis loaded best on four factors from 19 variables: Demographic Features, Country’s Activity Features, Economic Exposure and Societal Vulnerability (i.e. the PREM Model). This model explains 65.5% of the variance in the level of experienced hazard (LEH). Additionally, we determined that LEK explains only about 2% of the variance in LEH. Conclusion: The developed PREM model shows that monitoring of Demographic Features, Country’s Activity Features, Economic Exposure and Societal Vulnerability can help a country to identify the possible impact of pandemic risk exposure and develop policies, strategies, regulations, etc., to help a country strengthen its capacity to meet the economic, social and in turn healthcare demands due to pandemic hazards such as COVID-19. © 2020 Grima et al.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • S. Grima
    Department of Insurance, Faculty of Economics, Management and Accountancy, University of Malta, Msida, Malta
  • M. Kizilkaya
    Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ardahan University, Ardahan, Turkey
  • R. Rupeika-Apoga
    Department of Business, Management and Economics, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
  • I. Romānova
    Department of Construction & Property Management, University of Malta, Msida, MSD 2080, Malta
  • R. Gonzi
    Institute of Comparative Economic Studies ICES, Faculty of Economics, Hosei University, Tokyo, Japan
  • M. Jakovljevic
    Department of Global Health Economics and Policy, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
Название журнала
  • Risk Management and Healthcare Policy
Том
  • 13
Страницы
  • 2067-2077
Ключевые слова
  • Article; coronavirus disease 2019; Cronbach alpha coefficient; exploratory factor analysis; hierarchical regression analysis; human; independent variable; Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement Model; regression analysis; reliability; statistical model
Издатель
  • Dove Medical Press Ltd
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus