Статья

Prediction of lethal outcomes in COVID-19 cases based on the results chest computed tomography [Прогнозирование летальных исходов при COVID-19 по данным компьютерной томографии органов грудной клетки]

S. Morozov, V. Gombolevskiy, V. Chernina, I. Blokhin, O. Mokienko, A. Vladzimirskiy, A. Belevskiy, D. Protsenko, M. Lysenko, O. Zayratyants, E. Nikonov,
2021

The objective: to predict lethal outcomes in patients with COVID-19 based on the result of chest computed tomography (chest CT) using a semi-quantitative visual scale of the pulmonary parenchyma lesion. Subjects and methods. Inclusion criteria: patients who underwent chest CT from March 2 to May 1, 2020, inclusively, upon referral of a general practitioner due to suspected community-acquired pneumonia caused by COVID-19. Chest CT was performed in 48 medical organizations providing primary medical care to the adult population in Moscow. Exclusion criteria: patients whose chest CT was not assessed by CT 0-4 score; patients who were not confirmed as COVID-19 positive. In the Russian Federation, CT 0-4 score is recommended to be used for assessment of the extent of lung parenchyma lesion in cases with suspected COVID-19. Data on fatal outcomes were received on May 4, 2020 inclusive. Results: data of 13,003 patients from the Unified Radiological Information Service were retrospectively included in the study according to inclusion and exclusion criteria. The test aimed to detect a trend of directional changes in the proportion of deceased patients among various categories using CT 0-4 score demonstrated a statistically significant result (p < 0.0001). The chance of a lethal outcome increases directionally from CT-0 to CT-4. The test for deviations from the linear trend also provided p < 0.0001, i.e. when moving to higher scores (CT-3 and CT-4), there was an accelerated increase in the risk of death. Analysis of overall survival using the Cox regression model showed that the assessed factors (age and CT 0-4 score) were statistically significantly associated with the time to death from COVID-19 (p < 0.05). The risk of death increased with age, on average, 8.6% for every 5 years (95% CI 0.8-17.0%). When transferring from one category of CT to the next one, the risk increased by 38% on the average (95% CI 17.1-62.6%). There was no statistically significant association of gender factor with overall survival (p = 0.408). The visual score of CT 0-4 recommended for use in the Russian Federation to assess lung parenchyma lesions according to chest CT data, is a predictor of a lethal outcome in patients with COVID-19. CT 0-4 score is convenient for practical use. © 2020 New Terra Publishing House. All rights reserved.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

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Об авторах
  • S. Morozov
    Scientific Practical Clinical Center of Diagnostics and Telemedicine Technologies, 28, Bd. 1, Srednaya Kalitnikovskaya St., Moscow, 109029, Russian Federation
  • V. Gombolevskiy
    Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University, Pulmonology of Moscow Health Department, Head of Pulmonology Department. 1, Ostrovityanova St., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
  • V. Chernina
    City Clinical Hospital no. 40, Moscow Health Department, Candidate of Medical Sciences, Anesthesiology and Intensive Care of Moscow Health Department, Head Physician. 7, Kasatkina St., Moscow, 129301, Russian Federation
  • I. Blokhin
    City Clinical Hospital no. 52, Moscow Health Department, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Head Physician, 11, Sosnovaya St., Moscow, 123182, Russian Federation
  • O. Mokienko
    A.I. Yevdokimov State Medical Stomatological University, Doctor of Medical Sciences, Pathological Anatomy Department., 20, Build. 1, Delegatskaya St., Moscow, 127473, Russian Federation
  • A. Vladzimirskiy
    Administration and Coordination Department of Moscow Health, Department, Head. 43, Oruzheyny Lane, Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation
  • A. Belevskiy
  • D. Protsenko
  • M. Lysenko
  • O. Zayratyants
  • E. Nikonov
Название журнала
  • Tuberculosis and Lung Diseases
Том
  • 98
Выпуск
  • 6
Страницы
  • 7-14
Издатель
  • New Terra Publishing House
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus