Статья

Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis

S. Sharma, V. Volpert, M. Banerjee,
2020

An extended SEIQR type model is considered in order to model the COVID-19 epidemic. It contains the classes of susceptible individuals, exposed, infected symptomatic and asymptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered. The basic reproduction number and the final size of epidemic are determined. The model is used to fit available data for some European countries. A more detailed model with two different subclasses of susceptible individuals is introduced in order to study the influence of social interaction on the disease progression. The coefficient of social interaction $K$ characterizes the level of social contacts in comparison with complete lockdown (K=0) and the absence of lockdown (K=1). The fitting of data shows that the actual level of this coefficient in some European countries is about 0.1, characterizing a slow disease progression. A slight increase of this value in the autumn can lead to a strong epidemic burst.

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  • 1. Version of Record от 2020-08-12

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • S. Sharma
    Department of Mathematics, Vijaygarh Jyotish Ray College
  • V. Volpert
    Peoples' Friendship University of Russia; French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation
  • M. Banerjee
    Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur
Предметная рубрика
  • COVID-19
Тип документа
  • other
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
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  • lens