Статья

Short-term Forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic using Google Trends Data: Evidence from 158 Countries

D. Fantazzini,
2021

The ability of Google Trends data to forecast the number of new daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 is examined using a dataset of 158 countries. The analysis includes the computations of lag correlations between confirmed cases and Google data, Granger causality tests, and an out-of-sample forecasting exercise with 18 competing models with a forecast horizon of 14 days ahead. This evidence shows that Google-augmented models outperform the competing models for most of the countries. This is significant because Google data can complement epidemiological models during difficult times like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, when official statistics maybe not fully reliable and/or published with a delay. Moreover, real-time tracking with online-data is one of the instruments that can be used to keep the situation under control when national lockdowns are lifted and economies gradually reopen.

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Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-07-14

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • D. Fantazzini
    National Research University – Higher School of Economics; Moscow State University
Предметная рубрика
  • COVID-19
Название журнала
  • SSRN Electronic Journal
Тип документа
  • journal article
Источник
  • lens