Статья

Mathematical Modeling of the Wuhan COVID-2019 Epidemic and Inverse Problems

S. Kabanikhin, O. Krivorotko,
2020

Abstract: Mathematical models for transmission dynamics of the novel COVID-2019 coronavirus, an outbreak of which began in December, 2019, in Wuhan are considered. To control the epidemiological situation, it is necessary to develop corresponding mathematical models. Mathematical models of COVID-2019 spread described by systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are overviewed. Some of the coefficients and initial data for the ODE systems are unknown or their averaged values are specified. The problem of identifying model parameters is reduced to the minimization of a quadratic objective functional. Since the ODEs are nonlinear, the solution of the inverse epidemiology problems can be nonunique, so approaches for analyzing the identifiability of inverse problems are described. These approaches make it possible to establish which of the unknown parameters (or their combinations) can be uniquely and stably recovered from available additional information. For the minimization problem, methods are presented based on a combination of global techniques (covering methods, nature-like algorithms, multilevel gradient methods) and local techniques (gradient methods and the Nelder–Mead method).

Цитирование

Похожие публикации

Документы

Источник

Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2020-11-01

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • S. Kabanikhin
    Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk State University
  • O. Krivorotko
    Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk State University
Название журнала
  • Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics
Том
  • 60
Выпуск
  • 11
Страницы
  • 1889-1899
Финансирующая организация
  • Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Номер гранта
  • 075-15-2019-1675
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC BY
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus