Статья

Extended SEIQR type model for COVID-19 epidemic and data analysis

S. Sharma, V. Volpert, M. Banerjee,
2021

An extended SEIQR type model is considered in order to model the COVID-19 epidemic. It contains the classes of susceptible individuals, exposed, infected symptomatic and asymptomatic, quarantined, hospitalized and recovered. The basic reproduction number and the final size of epidemic are determined. The model is used to fit available data for some European countries. A more detailed model with two different subclasses of susceptible individuals is introduced in order to study the influence of social interaction on the disease progression. The coefficient of social interaction K characterizes the level of social contacts in comparison with complete lockdown (K=0) and the absence of lockdown (K=1). The fitting of data shows that the actual level of this coefficient in some European countries is about 0.1, characterizing a slow disease progression. A slight increase of this value in the autumn can lead to a strong epidemic burst.

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Источник

Версии

  • 1. Version of Record от 2021-04-27

Метаданные

Об авторах
  • S. Sharma
    Department of Mathematics, Vijaygarh Jyotish Ray College, Kolkata, 700032, India
  • V. Volpert
    Institut Camille Jordan, UMR 5208 CNRS, University Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, 69622, France
  • M. Banerjee
    INRIA Team Dracula, INRIA Lyon La Doua, Villeurbanne, 69603, France
Название журнала
  • Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
Том
  • 17
Выпуск
  • 6
Страницы
  • 7562-7604
Ключевые слова
  • basic reproduction number; communicable disease control; data analysis; disease exacerbation; disease free survival; disease predisposition; epidemic; epidemiological monitoring; epidemiology; Europe; hospitalization; human; quarantine; recurrent disease; social behavior; theoretical model; Basic Reproduction Number; Communicable Disease Control; COVID-19; Data Analysis; Disease Progression; Disease Susceptibility; Disease-Free Survival; Epidemics; Epidemiological Monitoring; Europe; Hospitalization; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Quarantine; Recurrence; Social Behavior
Издатель
  • NLM (Medline)
Тип документа
  • journal article
Тип лицензии Creative Commons
  • CC
Правовой статус документа
  • Свободная лицензия
Источник
  • scopus